Samples Deliverables Pricing FAQ Order on Fiverr
Order on Fiverr
Business decisions. Quantified.

What's the chance you hit your target?

Send your idea, target, and assumptions. I'll return a PDF showing your probability of success and the few drivers you must validate first.

  • Probability of hitting your target metric
  • Which assumptions actually move the needle
  • What to validate first (tornado ranking)
Order on Fiverr See sample pages →
⏱ 72-hour delivery 🔒 NDA on request 🗑️ Data deleted after 90 days
Sample business case report
Probability distribution Sensitivity analysis

Example pages, anonymised.

This is for you if...

🚀 Leap Founder

Thinking of quitting your job? See if the numbers support the jump.

📈 Expansion Owner

Planning a big spend? Know if you'll break even—or break the bank.

📝 Grant Applicant

Need defensible assumptions? Get numbers that survive investor scrutiny.

💡 Indie Creator

Scaling your side project? Find out what breaks first.

What you receive

📊

Probability Analysis

  • Monte Carlo distribution (P5/P50/P95)
  • Probability of hitting your target
  • Full outcome range visualization
🌪️

Sensitivity Ranking

  • Tornado chart of key drivers
  • Which assumptions matter most
  • Where to focus your validation
📋

Executive Report

  • Summary with decision recommendation
  • Your assumptions documented
  • Key risks and mitigation levers
🔄

Scenario Comparison

  • Base, downside, upside cases
  • Side-by-side outcome comparison
  • One revision round included

See sample report pages →

How it works

1

Download the intake form

Fill out your assumptions, costs, pricing, and target metric in our Excel template. Takes about 7 minutes.

📥 Download Excel
2

I build your simulation

I translate your inputs into a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000+ scenarios), then calculate the probability of hitting your target. You'll see the full distribution, not a single fake-precision number.

3

Receive your report

Get a PDF with probabilities, sensitivities, and a focus plan. One revision round included.

📄 See sample report
Delivery times: Snapshot 72 hrs • Decision Pack 5 days • Full Stack 7 days

What we need from you

Required

  • Product or service description
  • Pricing and unit economics
  • Cost structure breakdown
  • Volume assumptions and constraints
  • Investment needs
  • Time to ramp

Optional (helpful)

  • Existing spreadsheet model
  • Competitor price points
  • Funnel metrics (if SaaS/ecom)
  • Capacity limits (if operations)

Not a fit if...

  • You want a full business plan
  • You need audited accounting or legal advice
  • You cannot provide basic unit economics

Pricing

Snapshot

For leap founders needing a quick reality check

$197
  • 72-hour delivery
  • 1 scenario analyzed
  • 1 target metric
  • Probability + top drivers
  • Focus plan included
  • 1 revision round
Order on Fiverr

Decision Pack

For expansion owners with money at stake

$397
  • 5-day delivery
  • 3 scenarios compared
  • 3 target metrics
  • Full sensitivity ranking
  • Decision matrix
  • 1 revision round
Order on Fiverr

Full Stack

For grant applicants needing defensible numbers

$697
  • 7-day delivery
  • 5 scenarios compared
  • Unlimited targets
  • Narrative summary
  • Investor/grant ready
  • 1 revision round
Order on Fiverr

Add-ons

🚀 Rush (24hr): +$99 📊 Extra scenario: +$75 📝 Narrative write-up: +$125

Fulfilment and payment handled on Fiverr.

Sample pages

Executive summary
Executive Summary
Probability distribution
Probability Distribution
Sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario comparison
Scenario Comparison
Assumptions
Assumptions Table
Risk mitigation
Risk & Mitigation

FAQ

A PDF report containing: executive summary with your probability of hitting your target metric, Monte Carlo distribution chart with percentiles, sensitivity ranking showing which assumptions matter most, scenario comparison, and a focus plan for what to prioritize. The specific scope depends on the package you choose.
At minimum: your offer description, pricing, cost structure, volume assumptions, and one target metric.

Examples of targets: "NPV > 0", "€50k profit", "positive EBITDA", "gross margin ≥ 60%", "break-even within 12 months", "MRR > €10k".

The more specific you are about ranges (best case, base case, worst case), the better the analysis.
If you share an existing spreadsheet, I can use it when it's compatible. If not, I'll rebuild a clean assumption model so the simulation is valid. This ensures results aren't biased by unsupported functions or circular references.
After you receive the initial report, you can request changes to assumptions, add clarifications, or fix errors. One revision round is included with all packages. Additional revisions or significant scope changes can be added via the add-on pricing.
NDA available on request. Your inputs stay yours—we don't share, resell, or publish any client data. All project files are automatically deleted after 90 days unless you explicitly ask us to retain them for future updates.
No. This is analytical modeling based on assumptions you provide. The output is a structured way to stress-test your plan—not a guarantee of outcomes, investment recommendation, or professional financial/legal advice. Always consult qualified professionals for those needs.